What this campaign already tells us about the next four years
Regardless of the final result, eight key dynamics are already redefining the risks and opportunities ahead for business and politics
Election Day is three days away. While we don’t yet know the final outcome, several key dynamics from this campaign are unlikely to change, barring a truly unpredictable result on April 28.
I’ll share additional observations next week once the results are in. But I wanted to publish these first takes now—because they speak to the campaign’s underlying forces, not just the final tally.
The outcome will matter, of course. But the bigger story is already clear—and it has major implications for business, politics, and public affairs. No matter who wins on Monday, the political terrain has already shifted.
Besides, if you’re serious about planning for the first 100 days, the work needs to start now—not after the votes are counted.
Let me know what you think. (Full analysis below the video)
1. This was a personality contest, played out like a presidential race
This campaign had little to do with specific policy ideas, and little to do with individual candidates in each riding. Given how quickly the polls changed, the 2025 federal campaign became a referendum on leadership style, not about who has the best plan to fight Trump or return Canada to economic prosperity.
Truth is, Carney and Poilievre neutralized each other’s policy edges, leaving tone, temperament, credibility, and personal brands as the key differentiators.
On substance, this was a low-contrast campaign.
Why it matters
Canadians are choosing a leader they trust to manage this specific crisis, purely based on who they think has the best C.V. and temperament. The choice is very much of the moment, and could be short-lived.
If Carney wins, expect centralized decision-making like we’ve never seen before. Your government-relations strategy must adapt to personality-driven power structures, primarily out of the PMO.
2. This is a change election where the incumbent party is seen to have changed
The desire for change is real, and palpable. We’ve seen it in the polls and I’ve heard it at the doors. Normally, this would be great for opposition parties, especially in a two-horse race. Unfortunately for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, many voters see Mark Carney as the change agent they like. That’s because for many Canadians, the change they sought was from Trudeau. With Trudeau out of the picture, the itch got scratched. Which in turn, is why we had a personality contest.
Carney offers change without chaos.
Why it matters
Even if Carney wins big, don’t confuse it for a long-term mandate. Voters are voting for change, and that change is largely ill-defined beyond the immediate need. An anybody-but-Trudeau-or-Trump vote satisfies an immediate need, but it means expectations will be varied. And that means, in the next four years, many voters will be disappointed.
Plan for a short-lived honeymoon, and ensure your political engagement and long-term planning factors an even larger seismic shift in the next four years.
3. The Conservative base is locked, but the accessible swing vote continues to be fragile
The Conservative campaign has locked in a loyal base—and while it looks like the party is on track for one of its best popular vote showings, the Canadian electorate, on balance, tilts to the left. The early 20-point lead wasn’t an endorsement of Poilievre—it was a rejection of Trudeau. Combine this with a collapse of the NDP vote, and the pool of available voters quickly returned to the mean for the Conservatives. I’m eager to see how many more voters Pierre Poilievre was able to get out to vote, as the generational divide may be a truer representation of the new political spectrum in Canada. Even so, stitching together a winning coalition is incredibly tough for Conservatives.
Why it matters
The Conservatives will once again find themselves wondering if they focused too much on their core, or if they need to find a way to shift more to the centre. However, given the shifting political and demographic landscape, the real challenge isn’t how far left to move, but how disparate it needs to go along demographic, cultural, and regional lines. How does it win over more urban and suburban seats in vote-rich regions?
This may mean, eventually, patching together a coalition of premiers and provincial conservative leaders who have cracked this code.
4. The message was right—until the moment changed
Pierre Poilievre’s cost-of-living narrative had a long shelf life—until it didn’t. The moment Trump returned to the headlines with fresh tariffs, the economic narrative shifted. The threat wasn’t Trudeau anymore. It was, and is, Trump. And that forced a rewrite of the ballot question early in the campaign. While the cost-of-living issue never went away, it got bundled up with the larger economic threat facing the country, and it became difficult to decouple these two economic issues.
Why it matters
Facing an existential threat, many voters ceased asking who could fix Canada or help them pay the bills. They shifted immediately to assessing who could unify the country, stand up to the Trump and protect the nation. (There’s an interesting twist on national unity though, which I get into further below).
Expectations on the next prime minister are going to be astronomical, because the moment is so big. The country is facing a massive recalibration of its biggest trading relationship, with an unpredictable actor on the other side of the border, and that means political decision-making will be frantic, and chaotic. Such is the moment.
5. The NDP collapse is severe, not total
Barring some miracle at the ballot box, it the national NDP vote collapsed. However, it would be a mistake to assume that a poor seat count means the NDP is on its last breath. Sure, the NDP ran a disciplined firewall campaign—defending incumbents, not expanding the map, and yes, that may be enough to survive where it needs to, but as Mike McDonald told us on the pod, the NDP has shoots of green in many parts of the country, and they will grow back.
Why it matters
For public affairs teams, this means you can’t write them off. The NDP may not hold the influence it did in the last Parliament, but your job is to identify who the next generation of NDP leaders are, and cement your understanding and relationships with them. Don’t know where to start? Focus on resilient ridings in B.C. and Ontario, and fan out from there.
6. Advanced polls are shortening the campaign period
With more than 7 million Canadians voting early, (expected to be 30% of the final vote), election day is no longer the main event. Campaigns that fail to peak two weeks before the vote are effectively invisible to millions. When the dust settles, I think the Conservatives and the NDP will look back and regret not going bold, loud, and strong in the first two weeks of the campaign.
Why it matters
That last-minute ad buy or high-profile speech has less and less impact with every passing campaign.
It also means, in many ways, the campaign is set before the writ period. The window to influence voters is shorter, and shorter. The best time to start? The day after the election.
7. Carney’s first 100 days will test the coalition
If elected, Carney enters office with a wide—and potentially brittle—coalition. Red Tory boomers, climate activists, and Trudeau-era Liberals will all expect a seat at the table. That’s a recipe for conflict unless power is quickly centralized.
Why it matters
This will be a continuation government in new packaging. For business, expect familiar policy paths—but new faces and new pressures inside cabinet.
And be ready for a lot of behind-the-scenes machinations as the honeymoon period comes to an end.
Watch how quickly the PMO consolidates power. If it doesn’t, the new government will unravel at the seams quickly.
8. Alberta separatism isn’t fringe—it’s a pressure valve
Recent polling shows separatist sentiment in Alberta hovering around 25–30%. It’s also high in BC. You may think that 20-30% isn’t hight, but it’s also far from fringe. And these numbers reflect a deeper alienation that will re-emerge fast if Western Canada feels ignored again.
Why it matters
If Western alienation escalates, expect harder regionalism in resource files, regulatory disputes, and interprovincial coordination.
Track Alberta’s reaction in the weeks after the election. If the West is excluded again from cabinet or key files, this sentiment will boil over fast.
If Carney wins, he has a near-impossible mission: his promise is to unify Canada against the Trump threat. Yet, his win may serve to break this country apart, or severely test its unity. His entire mandate will become defined by his ability diffuse disparate regional frustrations. The old deal of Confederation may need a rewrite to satisfy this need.
Great piece. Hadn’t thought about the impact of the advance poll. Will be interesting to see if that plays out over time or if it was timely only to this election and Good Friday.